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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.