Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.